We pulled the numbers on 662 maker projects from 367 makers over the last three months. A few of the results genuinely surprised us - and most of them contradict what the hardware press keeps repeating.
Three findings worth your attention
1. ESP32 isn't winning. It already won.
ESP32-family chips show up in 59.8% of new projects. Arduino AVR (mostly the Nano) holds 21.5%, almost entirely in non-connected builds — workshop tools, lighting, art. The "Arduino + Wi-Fi shield" pattern? Effectively zero. Dead.
2. Raspberry Pi Pico flopped on the workbench.
Just 0.6% — 4 projects out of 662. Despite years of marketing push from Adafruit, Pimoroni and friends, makers aren't reaching for it when they actually sit down to build.
3. The #1 project category is audio, not smart home.
Audio and music projects (guitar tuners, visualizers, synths, effects) hit 10.3% of all originals - beating every "IoT" or "smart home" subcategory. The tech press narrative doesn't match what people are actually soldering.
Bonus signal: offline AI is quietly happening
Six independent makers shipped offline AI inference nodes in two months. No coordination, no hype cycle - just people putting models on their own hardware. Worth watching.
Kit economics
Median project BOM: $139. There's a sharp drop-off above $200 - a real ceiling for hobby builds, useful to know if you're designing a kit or product around this audience.
This is the short version. The full post has the methodology, all the data tables, the kit-cost distribution, and a downloadable dataset if you want to run your own cuts.
Read the full breakdown: State of Maker Projects, May 2026
What's your default MCU in 2026? Drop it in the comments - curious whether the ESP32 dominance holds in this audience too.
